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Estado:
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Aprovado
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Começa:
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10 de Março de 2021, 12:00
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Termina:
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10 de Março de 2021, 13:00
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Recursos:
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PT
Tema
"Global
value chains, value-added generation and
structural change in EU core and periphery
economies: an Input-Output approach"
Backward and forward
integration are growing in most sectors across the
European Union (EU). To benefit from this increasing
participation in Global Value Chains (GVC), the increase
in imports should be followed by adequate growth in
exports. The external dependency of many industries and
the corresponding low domestic value-added generated in
production, combined with relatively weak export potential
can cause high trade deficits and growing external debt to
GDP ratios. This paper evaluates the inter- industry
participation in GVCs considering eight different EU
economies and 25 tradable sectors. Based on Input- Output
production multipliers and intermediate import
coefficients, we propose an empirical method to assess the
evolution of vertical specialization, domestic value-added
generation and external dependency. After a convenient
arrangement of the Leontief inverse matrix, the evolution
of backward linkage indicators can be used to detect
structural changes, particularly quantifying a "net
growth effect" and an "external dependency
effect". This method allows the classification of
each sector into different areas considering their recent
structural evolution and it can be useful as a simple, but
suggestive, device to compare different economies in a
given period or assess their structural development
processes in time. A detailed comparison of one EU
periphery country (Portugal) and one EU core country
(Germany) is made, based on WIOD data for the period
2000-2014, followed by a brief presentation of six other
cases (Austria, Check Republic, Belgium, Finland, Greece,
and Netherlands). Particular attention is given to
differences within and between countries before and after
the global financial crisis.
Orador
Tiago Domingues
is currently working as
a Software Developer at Timestamp. He holds a Bachelor’s
degree in Economics from ISCTE Business School, a Master’s
degree in Monetary and Financial Economics from ISEG, and
a Postgraduate degree in Enterprise Data Science &
Analytics from NOVA IMS. He worked as an economist at GEE
– Ministry for the Economy and Digital Transition for more
than three years. His main areas of interest are
macroeconomic analysis, macroeconometric methods and
unsupervised machine learning models
.
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